Summary of J. Powell Press Conference｜鮑威爾記者會重點整理
On the Fed Funds Rate & QT｜關於聯邦基金利率和量化收縮：
- Median rate projection is now 5.1% for the end of 2023, 4.3% for the end of 2024 and 3.1% for the end of 2025
- 利率中值預測為2023年底5.1％，2024年底4.3％和2025年底3.1％
- Considered pausing, but there was still a "strong consensus" to hike by 25 bps
- 考慮過暫停加息，但仍有「強烈的共識」升息25個基點
- "Too soon to determine the total impact" of the recent banking issues and so "too soon to know how monetary policy should address them."
- 還不確定近期銀行問題的整體影響，因此判斷現在貨幣政策如何解決這些問題的時機還太早
- Powell reiterated base case is not cutting in 2023. 5.1% median projection hints at 0-1 more hikes & then pause
- Powell重申，基本情況是2023年不會降息，5.1％的終端利率中值，暗示著可能還有0-1次升息，然後暫停
On Inflation｜關於通膨
- Powell acknowledged that new leases are being signed at rates that will lead to housing disinflation over the coming months.
- 鮑威爾承認新租約價格的簽署將導致未來幾個月的住房通膨下降
- Services disinflation ex-housing needs to pick up; goods disinflation is material.
- 除住房外，服務業通膨需要加速下降，商品通膨下滑明確
- PCE median expectation of 3.3% by end of 2023 & 2.5% by end of 2024.
- PCE 的中值預期為 2023 年底 3.3％，2024年底 2.5％
On Recent Banking Sector Issues｜關於近期銀行業問題
- BTFP "demonstrates commitment to ensure deposits are safe." Banks holding safe & liquid assets can borrow reserves at par. It's meeting "unusual funding needs
- BTFP 作法展現了確保存款安全的承諾，持有安全和流動性資產的銀行可以透過面額借貸準備金，作法滿足了「非常規的資金需求」
- The issues will likely tighten credit conditions & weigh on economic output
- 銀行業的問題可能導致信貸條件緊縮、拖累經濟產出
- QT is continuing (despite recently adding assets to the balance sheet via BTFP)
- QT正在繼續進行（儘管近期透過 BTFP 向資產負債表增加了資產
- Powell："SVB failed with taking too much risk and not hedging that risk appropriately. These weaknesses are not at all broad throughout the banking system. This is an outlier."
- 鮑威爾：SVB 因為未進行適當的對沖，導致承擔過度風險而失敗，這些弱點在整個銀行系統中並不普遍，這是一個例外情況
On Economic Projections｜關於經濟預測
- Real GDP 2023 median projection now 0.4% & 1.2% for 2024. Risks are to downside
- 2023年實際GDP中值預測現在為0.4％，2024年為1.2％。風險是向下的
- The labor market still too tight with supply & demand equilibrium still out of whack
- 勞動力市場仍然太緊，供需均衡仍然失調
- Expect unemployment to rise from 3.6% now to 4.5% by the end of the year and then 4.6% by end of 2024; Wage inflation is moderating
- 預計失業率從現在的 3.6％ 上升到今年年底的 4.5％，然後到2024年底的4.6％；工資通膨正在緩和
- Housing sector and other rate sensitive pieces of the economy like fixed business investment showing real signs of weakness
- 住房部門和其他對利率敏感的經濟板塊，如固定投資，顯示出實質上的疲弱跡象
- Consumer spending picking up, but this may just be seasonal as weather improves
- 消費支出有所增加，但這可能只是因為天氣改善的季節性原因
March 2023 FOMC Statement｜FOMC 聲明稿:
Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have picked up in recent months and are running at a robust pace; the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.
最近的指標表明消費和生產呈現適度增長。就業增長在近幾個月已經加速且保持強勁，失業率保持低位。通膨仍然偏高。
The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Recent developments are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects is uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.
美國銀行體系健全而具有彈性。最近的發展可能會導致家庭和企業的信貸條件收緊，並對經濟活動、就業和通膨產生壓力。這些影響的程度還不確定。委員會對通膨風險保持高度警覺。
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-3/4 to 5 percent.
委員會旨在實現長期內最大就業和通膨率維持在2%。為支持這些目標，委員會決定將聯邦基金利率的目標區間提高至4.75%至5%。
The Committee will closely monitor incoming information and assess the implications for monetary policy. The Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. In determining the extent of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.
委員會將密切監視新進信息，評估其對貨幣政策的影響。委員會預計，為實現足夠收緊的貨幣政策以使通脹在一定時間內回歸 2%，可能需要進一步政策收緊。在決定目標區間未來加息幅度時，委員會將考慮貨幣政策的累計收緊、貨幣政策對經濟活動和通膨的滯後效應以及經濟和金融發展。
In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.
此外，委員會將繼續按照其先前公佈的計劃減持國債、機構債和機構支持的抵押貸款證券。委員會強烈致力於將通膨恢復到其 2% 的目標水平。
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
在評估貨幣政策的適當立場時，委員會將繼續監視新進信息對經濟展望的影響。如果出現可能阻礙委員會實現目標的風險，委員會將做出相應的貨幣政策調整。委員會的評估將考慮廣泛的信息，包括勞動力市場條件、通膨壓力和通膨預期、金融和國際發展。委員會將繼續審慎地平衡實現最大就業和價格穩定目標之間的貨幣政策。
Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller.
投票委員有 Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller.
0 comments